THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Denver (27-14, 22-18-1 ATS) at Houston (25-16, 19-22 ATS)
The Rockets will try to make it seven straight wins for the home team in this budding rivalry with the Nuggets in an early afternoon affair at the Toyota Center.
The host has won six straight (5-1 ATS) in this rivalry, including both meetings this season (2-0 ATS). Denver scored a 104-94 victory back on Nov. 30 as a 3½-point home favorite and Houston returned the favor on Dec. 16 with a 108-96 victory as a four-point chalk. The Rockets have gone 8-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes, including 4-1 ATS in Texas.
The Nuggets just wrapped up a seven-game homestand with Saturday’s 106-88 loss to the streaking Magic, falling as 1½-point favorites. Denver, which went 5-2 SU and ATS on the homestand, has topped the 100-point mark just once in its last four games (1-3 ATS), and that was a 119-113 overtime win against the Suns on Thursday as three-point favorites.
Houston has won four of its last five (3-2 ATS), including Saturday’s 93-86 victory over the Heat, cashing as a 3½-point home chalk. The Rockets, who allow just 91.1 points per game at home, are 13-5 in front of the home crowd this season, but just 7-11 ATS.
The Nuggets are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and 0-4 in their last four games as a ‘dog, but they are on positive ATS runs of 4-1 after a non-cover, 11-4 after getting a day off and 12-5 against the Southwest Division. Houston is mired in ATS ruts of 4-9 overall, 2-5 at home, 0-4 against the Western Conference and 5-10 after getting a day off this season.
Denver is on “over” streaks of 9-3 overall, 5-2 against the Southwest Division, 5-1 after a non-cover and 4-0 on the road. On the other hand, the Rockets are on under runs of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 20-8 as a home favorite, 6-1 as a favorite and 4-0 when getting one day off.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Phoenix (23-15, 13-24-1 ATS) at Boston (33-9, 22-20 ATS)
The Celtics will try to make it five in a row when they welcome the Suns into TD Banknorth Garden.
After dropping four straight and seven of nine (SU and ATS) in late December and early January, Boston has won four in a row (3-1 ATS), including a home-and-home sweep of the Nets Wednesday and Saturday. In the first contest against New Jersey, the Celtics rolled to a 118-86 home win over New Jersey as 10-point favorites, then they went to Jersey on Saturday and won 105-85 as a 6½-point chalk.
Phoenix broke a two-game SU and ATS losing skid with Sunday’s 117-113 win in Toronto, pushing as a four-point favorite. The Suns are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight overall and they haven’t held a team to less than 100 points since Jan. 2, giving up 108.4 points per game in their last five.
The home team has won each of the last three meetings between these two (2-1 ATS) but just four of the last 10. Last year, the Celtics got a 117-97 victory in Boston, covering as a seven-point favorite to snap a five-game Suns winning streak (3-2 ATS) in this series. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, with Phoenix sporting a 5-1 ATS mark in its last six visits to Beantown.
The Suns are on a host of negative ATS trends that include 8-21-1 overall, 3-8-1 on the road, 1-5-1 as a road ‘dog, 1-6-1 as an underdog anywhere, 0-4-1 against the Eastern Conference and 0-4 on Monday. Boston is on ATS slides of 1-5 against the Western Conference and 1-6 on Mondays, but the Celtics are on positive ATS streaks of 10-3 at home, 9-3 against the Pacific Division and 7-3 as a home favorite of five to 10½ points.
The Suns are in the midst of “over” streaks that include 15-7 overall, 8-1 on the road, 13-3 as a road ‘dog, 7-2 on the second night of a back-to-back and 27-11 against the Eastern Conference. Boston has topped the total in six of its last seven at home, but otherwise the Celtics are on “under” runs of 9-4 overall, 18-7-1 on Mondays, 10-1-1 against the Western Conference and 6-2 after getting a day off. Finally, the over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings between these squads, including 6-1 in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
Cleveland (31-7, 27-11 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (31-8, 18-21 ATS)
It’s a battle of NBA heavyweights at the Staples Center in Los Angeles as LeBron James brings his Cavaliers into Hollywood for a battle with Kobe Bryant and the Lakers.
Cleveland dropped its last road outing Thursday in Chicago, falling 102-93 as a 7½-point favorite. But the Cavs were able to rebound Friday and get a 92-78 home win over the Hornets, cashing as 2½-point favorites. They have cashed in four of their last five games and have limited opponents to 92 points or less in six of their last seven.
The Lakers have dropped two in a row, losing 112-111 in San Antonio on Wednesday but cashing as three-point ‘dogs, then falling 109-103 at home to Orlando on Friday as 4½-point favorites. Los Angeles is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven overall and hasn’t held an opponent to less than 100 points in seven straight games.
The Cavaliers have rattled off five straight wins over the Lakers (4-1 ATS), including a 98-95 win as four-point underdogs in its one trip to Los Angeles a year ago. Cleveland also delivered a 114-108 road win as 7½-point underdogs in 2007, and LeBron and Co. are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Cleveland is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games, but otherwise the Cavs are on positive ATS trends of 37-14 overall, 10-1 against the Western Conference, 11-5 against the Pacific Division, 39-19 as a road ‘dog, 20-7 on Mondays and 6-1 when getting two days off. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games, but they are on a plethora of negative pointspread of 0-4 at home, 6-20 against the Eastern Conference 2-12 after an non-cover, 1-6 when getting two days off, 5-16 after a straight-up loss and 6-13 at home against a team with a winning road mark.
For the Cavs, the under is on streaks of 5-2 on the road, 6-2 against the Western Conference, 4-1 as a road ‘dog, 5-1 on Monday and 6-1 after a spread-cover. Los Angeles is on over streaks of 4-1 overall, 16-6 at home, 6-2 on two days of rest, 12-5 against the Eastern Conference and 22-9 after a straight-up loss. However, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(8) Syracuse (17-2, 8-7 ATS) at (1) Pittsburgh (16-1, 7-5 ATS)
Pitt looks to rebound from its first loss of the season when it hosts eighth-ranked Syracuse at the Petersen Events Center in yet another clash of Top 25 Big East rivals.
The Panthers blew double-digit leads in both the first and second halves at Louisville on Saturday, eventually succumbing 69-63 as a two-point road underdog, their second consecutive non-cover in conference play. Only two players – Jermaine Dixon (19 points) and Sam Young (14) – scored in double figures for Pitt, which shot just 35 percent from the field. The loss snapped the Panthers’ nine-game conference winning streak (6-3 ATS) going back to last year’s regular-season finale and including their Big East tournament championship.
Syracuse steamrolled Notre Dame 93-74 as a four-point home favorite Saturday, bouncing back from Wednesday’s 88-74 loss at Georgetown as a 6½-point underdog – a defeat that snapped the Orange’s seven-game winning streak. Six different Syracuse players – including all five starters – scored in double figures in Saturday’s victory, as the Orange shot a blistering 55.2 percent from the field and held the Irish to 36.5 percent.
Both squads are 4-1 SU in Big East play, with the Orange going 3-2 ATS and the Panthers going 2-3 ATS.
Pitt is on a roll in this rivalry, winning five of he last six meetings SU and ATS, including the last two in a row. Last season, the Panthers went to Syracuse on March 1 and eked out an 82-77 victory as a two-point road underdog. The SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 meetings, with the visitor going 5-2 SU and ATS in the past seven regular-season clashes.
The Orange rank in the Top 10 nationally in scoring offense (81.5 points per game, 9th) and field-goal shooting (50.4 percent, 6th), and they’ve scored at least 72 points in 17 of 19 games, including topping 80 on 12 occasions. However, tonight, they face a Pitt defense that ranks 24th in points allowed (59.4 ppg) and 15th in field-goal defense (37.8 percent). The Panthers have held nine opponents to 60 points or less.
Defensively, Syracuse gives up 68.4 ppg, but on just 39.6 percent shooting overall and 29.1 percent from three-point range, the latter figure ranking 11th-best in the nation. Meanwhile, the Panthers score 77.1 ppg (47 percent shooting).
The Orange are 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall, 5-1 ATS in their last seven against winning teams and 3-1 ATS as an underdog this year, but they’re in pointspread slumps of 6-13 on Monday, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 2-9 in games following a 90-point offensive effort. Pitt is 5-1 ATS in its last six after a non-cover, but 1-4 ATS in its last five after a SU win.
The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in this rivalry and 21-10 in Syracuse’s last 31 games on Monday. However, the over is on runs of 4-0 for Syracuse overall (all in conference play), 11-3 for Pitt at home, 12-3 for Pitt in Big East play and 4-0 for Pitt after an outright defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Texas A&M (15-3, 5-6 ATS) at Kansas (13-4, 7-5 ATS)
Kansas shoots for its third consecutive Big 12 victory when it entertains Texas A&M at Allen Fieldhouse.
The Jayhawks suffered a 75-62 loss at No. 8 Michigan State nine days ago but have since come back and posted a pair of double-digit wins over Kansas State (87-71 as a 6½-point home favorite) and Colorado (73-56 as an 12-point road chalk) to start conference play. In Saturday’s win against the Buffaloes, Kansas had a big rebounding edge (31-19) and shot 61.4 percent from the field (27-for-44), including 52.9 percent from long range (9-for-17), while holding Colorado to 37.2 percent overall and 31.2 percent on three-pointers.
Three days after upsetting No. 21 Baylor 84-73 as a 1½-point home underdog, Texas A&M gave No. 6 Oklahoma a good run before falling 69-63 and coming up short as a 3½-point home pup. Although the Aggies held player-of-the-year candidate Blake Griffin to just 16 points and six rebounds, they had only two players score in double digits and finished shooting just 42 percent from the field while missing nine of 23 free-throw tries.
While Kansas is off to a perfect start in Big 12 action, Texas A&M – which won 14 of 15 non-conference games – is 1-2 SU and ATS, including a 72-61 loss at Oklahoma State as a seven-point underdog in its only league roadie to this point.
The Jayhawks have owned this rivalry, winning all but one meeting since the league was formed in 1996, going 9-1 SU this decade. In last year’s regular-season finale, Kansas upended the Aggies 72-55 as a 4½-point road underdog, then a week later the Jayhawks eliminated A&M from the Big 12 tournament with a 77-71 victory as an 11-point chalk in the semifinals on their way to the tournament championship and eventual NCAA title.
One positive for the Aggies in this series: They ended a 31-game losing skid at Allen Fieldhouse in their last trip to Kansas in 2007, prevailing 69-63 as a five-point underdog. Also, the ‘dog is 5-1 ATS in the last six series meetings.
Kansas has scored more than 70 points in all 13 of its victories, but in its last three losses it has scored 60, 67 and 62 points. At home, the Jayhawks average 82 ppg on 49.6 percent shooting. Meanwhile, the Aggies have been limited to an average of just 60 ppg in their three losses. On the road, Texas A&M pours in 73 ppg, but shoots only 43.5 percent from the field (28 percent from three-point land) while allowing 70 ppg on 42.5 percent shooting (32.7 from three-point range).
Texas A&M is on ATS streaks of 7-2 on the road, 6-0 after a SU loss and 7-0 following a non-cover. The Jayhawks are on pointspread rolls of 13-5 overall, 5-1 at home, 6-2 in Big 12 play, 11-5 against teams with a winning record and 4-0 on Monday.
For Kansas, the over is on stretches of 7-3 overall and 6-1 at home, and the over is 3-1 in the last four meetings between the schools. Conversely, the Aggies are on “under” streaks of 16-7 on the highway, 7-2 in conference play and 4-1 on Monday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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